Forex Market Size and Liquidity - FXDailyReport.Com

Biweekly Forex & Currency Update #25 (September 25, 2020): Forex Reserves in SBP - $12.36 Billion (-3.59%); USD/PKR - 164.63 (-0.696%)

Alright, now these updates have become bi-weekly. I like it better like this.
The percentage changes in the title are compared to the figures fourteen days ago.

Size of the Forex Reserves of Pakistan since August 28

Date Foreign Exchange Reserves in the SBP Week-on-Week Percentage Change (In SBP) Month-on-Month Percentage Change(In SBP)** Total Foreign Exchange Reserves Week-on-Week Percentage Change (Total) Month-on-Month Percentage Change (Total)**
August 28, 2020 $12.7127 Billion +0.57% +1.36% $19.8428 Billion +0.61% +1.43%
September 04, 2020 $12.8078 Billion +0.75% +2.71% $19.9613 Billion +0.60% +2.27%
September 11, 2020 $12.8204 Billion +0.10% +1.54% $19.9590 Billion -0.01% +1.54%
September 18, 2020 $12.7016 Billion -0.93% +0.48% $19.9037 Billion -0.28% +0.92%
September 25, 2020 $12.3597 Billion -2.69% -2.78% $19.5348 Billion -1.85% -1.55%
**A month refers to four weeks, as the data is released on a weekly basis.

USD/PKR Mid-Market Daily Average Exchange Rate since August 27

Date USD to PKR Exchange Rate Week-on-Week Percentage Change Month-on-Month Percentage Change**
August 27, 2020* 167.35600 -0.5105% -0.1291%
September 04, 2020 165.87335 -0.8859% -1.2060%
September 11, 2020 165.96950 +0.0459% -0.0173%
September 18, 2020 165.77935 -0.1146% -1.4478%
September 25, 2020 165.67625 -0.0622% -1.0037%
October 02, 2020 164.62595 -1.0503% -0.7520%
*Data for August 28, 2020 is not available.
**A month refers to four weeks to keep consistent with the last chart
Foreign Exchange Reserve Size Source
Forex Data archived on October 02, 2020
USD/PKR Exchange Rate Source
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What Is Forex?


What Is Forex?

The outside trade business is the “spot” where coinage are exchanged. Monetary forms are essential to the vast majority around the globe, whether they understand it or not, on account of coinage should be traded to lead outside exchange and business. In the event that you are living in the U.S. furthermore, need to purchase cheddar from France, it is possible that you or the organization that you purchase the cheddar from needs to pay the French for the cheddar in euros (EUR). This implies that the U.S. merchant would need to trade the equal estimation of U.S. dollars (USD) into euros. The same goes for voyaging. A French traveler in Egypt can’t pay in euros to see the pyramids on the grounds that its not the provincially acknowledged cash. In that capacity, the vacationer needs to trade the euros for the nearby coin, for this situation the Egyptian pound, at the present swapping scale.
The need to trade monetary forms is the essential motivation behind why the forex business is the biggest, most fluid budgetary market on the planet. It overshadows different markets in size, even the stock exchange, with a normal exchanged estimation of around U.S. $2,000 billion for every day. (The aggregate volume changes constantly, yet as of August 2012, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) reported that the forex business sector exchanged overabundance of U.S. $4.9 trillion for each day.)
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What is Forex?

Forex is the short way of saying “Foreign Exchange”. This means the global market for exchanging international currencies, also known as the FX market. When someone prices or exchanges a currency against another, the exchange rate is best on the particular forex trading pair (i.e., both currencies involved in the pair).
Currency pairs are typically priced out to four decimal places, depending on the currency denomination, where one ten-thousandth of a unit of currency is known as a pip (i.e., 0.0001 unit), which is the smallest price increment (in addition to fractional-pips).
The EUUSD, which is the most widely-traded forex pair, is an example of the Euro (EUR) currency against the US dollars (USD) currency.
When trading one unit of EUUSD, you can calculate the price in USD (i.e., a price of EUUSD 1.3000 indicates $1.30 per euro). Conversely, when exchanging the USD/EUR, each unit of USD (i.e. each dollar) will have the prace of a specific number of euros (i.e., a USD/EUR price of 0.7700 indicates €0.77 per dollar).
A speculator expecting the price of the EUUSD to go up. He will buy the EUUSD pair long (buying a pair to open a trade can be a bullish or long position). Whereas, a speculator anticipating a drop in the price of the EUUSD may sell the pair. (bearish or short position: selling to open a trade).

Largest international market Globally

The forex market is decentralized across the globe. It consists of dealers such as central banks, private and public banks, non-bank intermediaries, brokerages, and large corporations such as insurance giants and other participants engaged in international finance.
The Foreign Exchange market is the largest globally, with nearly $6 trillion in average daily volume traded as of April 2019, according to the latest BIS Triennial Survey of Central Banks.
The FX market suffers the influence mainly by each government’s monetary policy, the supply, and demand of the global economy. As well as international trade agreements, and users and suppliers of currencies (hedgers), in addition to speculators.

Market integrity and progress

While there have been cases of forex market manipulation by the biggest banks and dealers in the past, the amount of influence any one entity can have on the prices of major currencies is negligible. This resistance to serious manipulation risk is due to the enormous amount of trading and resulting liquidity available.
The FX Market itself has high price integrity. Because it is an electronic market, efficient and with a certain size. Participants must still adhere to best practices.
Efforts such as the Global FX code were launched to encourage forex dealers to uphold the best-execution where the best price available is given to traders.
These efforts are why the spreads and trading commissions continued to improve over the years, as the FX market evolved. In addition, regulators have competed to increase local market integrity and efficiency by creating more strict regulations. These come from the top-tier financial centers such as the US, UK, Singapore, Japan, Australia, among other advanced economies.

Investing and trading in the forex market

As an asset class, Forex is well-established and offered by many regulated brokerages from within a margin account.
The use of leverage is what makes forex trading more risky than non-margin investing.
Margin-based trading used by investors as well as self-directed traders and fund managers, thanks to the range of risk-management tools available within forex trading platforms (mobile, web, and desktop software). Wiseinvest provides trading signals with risk-management.

Forex market research and analysis

There are two primary ways for traders to assess and identify trading opportunities in the forex market.

Advanced forex trading strategies and algorithms

The foundation of successful trading in the forex market is having a trading strategy. It’s based on a specific methodology that best suits your trading needs. Strategies could be manual, automated, or a combination of both.
Over the past decade, there has been a proliferation of automated trading strategies made available for retail traders.
And while there are many serious traders with established track records for their trading systems, there are many more low-quality trading systems falsely marketed as high-quality by overly eager affiliates, making it harder for investors to navigate the market for trading signals.
There has also been an increase in the social copy trade. Where an operator can mimic other operators’ businesses in real time.
Whether using a copy-trading platform or an automated trading system, in almost all cases, this type of investing is considered self-directed and doesn’t require a power-of-attorney or another third-party money manager to handle your account.
Unlike other copy and social trading platforms, Wiseinvet’s AI has the ability to execute a huge set of market data. It does by combining technical and fundamental analysis. This strategy can increase the accuracy of trading signals.

Self-directed forex investors

Compared to investing in a managed fund, there is greater responsibility. Traders put it on self-directed traders who use trading systems. A self-directed trader should conduct more detailed due diligence. It can avoid falling for the countless low-quality trading systems that exist on the internet.

There are no guarantees that a strategy will perform well. But conducting proper due diligence can help traders assess various trading systems. They consider using them to aid their trading or investment strategy.
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【翻译Quora上一篇问答】中国是否正在面临一次银行危机(谈到房地产) by phoebeDD on 2016-10-04

Is China really facing a banking crisis? What are its origins?
(中国是否正在面对一次银行危机?其根源又是什么?)



According to a recent article titled China facing full-blown banking crisis, world's top financial watchdog war
ns published in the Telegraph:
(根据近期电讯文章报道:“世界顶级金融观察者发出警告:中国正在面临全面的银行危机”)
China has failed to curb excesses in its credit system and faces mounting risks of a full-blown banking crisis
(中国已对债务违约失去控制,他们正在面对随之而来的全面性银行危机)
(中国债务/GDP 占比图)


Financial Crises

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Robin Daverman, Dealmaker
Written Sep 27


Ah, but maybe you want to look around a bit and see how China’s total debt is compared with other economies, like this?
(你可能想看看其他经济体与中国的债务情况相比是怎么样的,如下图)

(G10债务分布图)
If you put China’s data on this chart, it will be somewhere around Canada and New Zealand. Guess Which Country Has Debt Of Nearly 1000% Of GDP... Shocking, isn’t it?
如果你将中国的数据插入上图进行比较的话,中国的数据大约会在加拿大和新西兰之间。猜猜看哪个国家债务大约是自己GDP的10倍....(英国)非常震惊吧
UK has almost 1000% Debt-to-GDP ratio, compared with China’s < 300% Debt-to-GDP ratio, mostly because of that over-sized financial debt - at the end of the day, the government must stand behind it. On top of that, the UK has no resource to sell, hardly any industry left, going through a divorce with EU, and almost never ever meets her fiscal targets. And yet, UK, with its near 1000% debt-to-GDP ratio, is still viewed as the gold standard among safe havens. PRESENTING: The Rosetta Stone Of The Entire Sovereign Debt Crisis Why? Because UK issues debt in her own currency. And who prints the pound? The UK government.
英国的债务/GDP占比将近1000%而中国只是小于300%,其原因是其过于庞大的金融债务——政府最终将不得不为之站台。在此之上,英国没用可出售的资源,没有任何本国工业,正在脱离欧盟,而且英国基本上从来没有达成其财务目标。即使如此,英国仍然被某些传媒视为安全经济体的黄金标准。其原因就是英债都以英镑的方式结算。那么是谁印英镑的呢?英国政府。
Then you take a look at Japan, wow that’s 600%+ debt-to-GDP ratio! But - Japan’s debt is not only mostly internal, in Japanese Yen, but also with 0% or even negative interest. You can roll this kind of debt over practically forever. That’s why people have been yelling about Japanese debt for the last 20 years, and nothing happens.
然后你看看日本,将近600%的债务/GDP占比!但是,日本的债务几乎都是内部的,以日元的形式出售的债务,而且日本是0利率甚至是负利率。实际上这种债务你可以无限积累下去(经济常识:如果是负利率,政府只要保持债务不变,多出来的部分会自行消失)。这就是为啥人们对日债担心了20年但屁事没有发生。
Then you take a look at those economies that have blown up on debt:
Argentina: Government/Sovereign debt in USD, with jurisdiction in New York!Greece: Government/Sovereign debt in Euro, with jurisdiction in Brussels!Iceland: External financial debt → nationalized into Government/Sovereign debt in USD and Euro alone was 700%+ GDP in 2008, with jurisdiction in New York and Brussels.
然后你看看那些因债务问题毁掉的经济体:
阿根廷:政府/主权债务以美元形式结算,其裁判权在纽约!希腊:政府/主权债务以欧元方式结算,其裁判权在布鲁塞尔!冰岛:外部金融债务→债务国有化后2008年政府/主权债务以美元和欧元的形式达到GDP的700%,其裁判权在纽约和布鲁塞尔
Then you look at China, with her debt almost entirely internal, in Chinese RMB to Chinese citizens, government debt at 55%, lower than the US, Japan, and EU average, in her own currency. China’s external debt is about 9% of GDP, globally ranked 184th (less than North Korea, similar to Kosovo) - anyway you look at it, it’s hardly the kind of material to make a banking crisis. China is borrowing a little bit from her own piggy bank. Argentina/Greece/Iceland were borrowing a lot from the Mafia.
然后你看看中国,中国的债务基本都是内部以人民币结算的。中国政府债务只占总债务的55%,比美国,日本和欧盟都要低,再次强调,其债务以人民币结算。中国外部债务只占GDP的9%,全球排行184位(比朝鲜低,比科索沃高)。无论怎么看,你都不会看到中国有任何银行危机的迹象。中国只是向其国内贪心的银行借钱。阿根廷/希腊/冰岛可是像美国欧盟这些黑手党借钱。
PS: The most significant increase in China’s debt is in the financial sector, driven by rising real estate price (which means higher value of housing loans). Right now, the Chinese government is basically using it as a tool to do macro-economic engineering. The goal is to cap urban growth in top tier cities (Beijing, Shanghai, etc.) and push the economic growth to second- and third- tier cities (Hangzhou, the city that just hosted G20, is an example.http://www.g20.org/English/Hangzhou/About/index.html Now you can look back and see why the Chinese government decided to host G20 in a city nobody has ever heard of). This is clearly stated by the Chinese government like 100 times since last year in the official news channels. The reason? Top tier Chinese cities like Shanghai (25 million) already have more city residents than the whole nation of Australia! The metropolitan area of Shanghai (44 million) has more people than the entire population of Canada! In one city! Beijing’s population grew by 8 million within the last decade! The place is simply full.List of cities in China by population and built-up area
PS: 中国最显著的债务增长是在其金融领域内不断升高的房价造成的(不断增高的房贷造成债务问题)。现在中国政府正在利用房价作为宏观经济调控的工具。其目的是限制一线城市的城市化进程和加速二三线城市的发展(刚刚举办了G20的杭州就是个例子,现在你就能知道为啥中国政府将G20放在一个没人听说过的城市举行了)。这些政策中国政府已经在官媒上宣布了无数次。原因就是一线城市,例如上海(2500万人口),其居民数量比阿根廷全国人口还要多!上海都市圈(4400万人口)的人口数量比加拿大全国还要多!北京人口数量在过去的10年内增长了800万!这些城市的人口数量已经饱和了。
In addition to real estate prices, the Chinese government is also doing stuff like restricting residents permits, disallowing second or third homes, even restricting jobs to local residents, everything to say “this place is full. We have these other nice choices, with lower housing prices. Go there.” Young people complaining about housing prices in tier-one cities? But that’s the whole point. The debt you have to take on to live in tier-one cities SHOULD SCARE YOU OFF. The Chinese government is trying to stop the influx of people pouring into tier-one cities, and get these smart and energetic youths to go build two, three, four, five. … more Shanghai’s in other parts of China. 1.4 billion people can’t all fit into tier-one cities.
除了以房地产为手段,中国政府也加强控制了居住证的发放,禁止第二/三套房买入甚至对本地居民的工作种类进行限制,这些都是为了表达一个意思:这些地方都人满为患了。二三线城市有更低的房价和更好的生活条件,快点去那里吧!年轻人都在抱怨一线城市的高房价?但这就是中国政府想要的。你在一线城市生存需要的代价会把你吓退。中国政府正在尝试控制一线城市的人口流入而让有技术和充满活力的年轻人去建设二三四五线城市——让更多的上海出现在国家的其他地方。14亿人口是没可能全部都聚集在一线城市的。
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Paul Denlinger, Involved in China economics study
Written Sep 27


There is too much debt, and a lot of it is likely to turn into bad debt, but that does not equal a banking crisis.
是因为中国贷款太多了,而这些贷款大多数会变成不良贷款,但这些都不等银行危机
Banking crisis may be a nice term to bandy around and get clicks and headlines, but does not really explain what is going on.
银行危机或许是一个十分吸引眼球的头条,但是根本就不能解释实际的情况
There was a lot of debt financing, especially after the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis in the US. In order to keep the economy on a steady keel, the Chinese government, through its banks, pumped money to Chinese state-owned enterprises, in order to keep high employment and maintain an image of “growth”. A lot of this money then found its way into the underground banking system through “wealth management products” and other means. A lot of this has turned into bad debt.
中国政府有过很多次债务融资,特别是08年美国次贷危机之后。为了稳住经济增长,中国政府通过银行将大量人民币注入到国企内以维持就业率和高增长的形象。但这些钱最终大都以理财产品和其他形式流进了地下钱庄。这些大部分都变成了不良贷款。
Another problem area, which frequently overlaps with the “wealth management products” is the local government financing vehicle used to fund local property development, which I have discussed here: Paul Denlinger's answer to Why does China have so many ghost towns?
另一个有问题的领域,和“理财产品”有莫大关联的,就是地方政府为当地基础建设所采用的金融工具(我在这个地方有详细的分析:https://www.quora.com/Why-does-China-have-so-many-ghost-towns/answePaul-Denlinger?srid=tR&share=22b99cfc
What is likely to happen in China is that growth will slow down in some areas, while there will be certain newer parts of the economy which will continue to grow. If the Chinese government is able to support the newer parts of the economy and help them to grow, while cutting back on loans to the weaker parts of the economy, it may be able to handle this transition better.
最可能发生的情况就是中国的经济增长将会放缓,但是肯定会用新的增站点。如果中国政府能支持新的增长点而且能减低夕阳工业的不良贷款率,那么或许能更好地度过过渡期。
This is exactly what the Chinese government is trying to do and you can read about it here:Here is how China is going to quietly save its economy
这些正是中国政府正在尝试去做的,你可以读读这个文章了解一下:http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2022491/china-deploys-policy-banks-stealth-mission-stimulate-growth
So, if you are expecting there to be a dramatic run on the banks, and the Chinese people to take to the streets and overthrow the Chinese Communist Party, and become a full-blown democracy like Taiwan, Japan or South Korea, you are very likely to be disappointed.
所以,如果你是期待一次强烈的bank run(自行百度啥是bank run),然后中国人民上街推翻TG,中国大陆变成与台湾,日本韩国一样的政体,那么你要失望了。
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Nikhil Ambhorkar, Self studied Finance.
Written Sep 26


Is China facing a Banking crisis?
中国是在面临一个银行危机吗?
Yes.

Is it facing a full blown Banking crisis?
中国正在面临一个全面性的银行危机吗?
No.

Combined debt of China is almost 300% of its GDP. But the the categorized in 4 parts as it is shown in the image with the question too.
中国的总债务大概是GDP的300%。但是分在了如图所示的4个领域内。
The corporate debt has the lion's portion of the total debt. The household debt and non corporate debt are nothing to worry about because it is less many other developed countries and has some room to grow.
公司债务在总债务中占了大头。个人债务和非公司债务根本没啥可担心的因为这些比大多数发达国家还要低所以还有增长的空间。
Government Debt is not too big when compared to standards set by many global institutions like IMF, World Bank, etc.
政府债务以多数国际组织,例如世行和IMF,设定得标准来看其实不高。
The only major concern which is of a serious magnitude is the corporate debt. This is also reiterated by many economists.
最主要的关注点就是公司债务了。许多经济学家都重申了这点无数次了。
Now the problem with China is that data that comes out of major Chinese institutions is murky so their are many different types of estimates by many different institutions but the common theme in it is corporate debt and its size.
中国最大的问题就是中国国内组织公布的数据来源不清晰所以不同的国际组织对中国经济的实际情况估算会不一样。但所有组织最关心的都是中国的公司债务与其规模。
Corporate debt consists of debt owned by state owned corporations and private corporations. Private corporations in China are generally crowded out by the state owned corporations because of connections and political agenda.
公司债务又分成了国企和私企的债务。中国私企大多数收到国企排挤,这是有政体造成的。
Many state owned corporations have invested into unproductive projects as a result of excess boost given by government after 2008 to prop up the economy. This has resulted in a huge amount of NPAs. So, in all the major problem is state owned corporations piling up huge amount of debt. To solve this problem, the government tried to convert the debt into shares which the bank owns and can recover money through profit dividends but this was one of the causes for last year's stock market crash.
在08年过度的经济刺激政策下,很多国企在许多无效益项目上投了许多钱。这造成了大量的无效能资产。所以,最大的问题是国企堆积了大量债务。为了解决这个问题,政府正在尝试将国企的债务转化为股份,那么银行就能将债务转化为红利而最终将债务收回了。但这造成了上年的股灾.....
Hence, it is a big crisis but not the one government cannot handle with so much trade surplus and forex reserves. But actions are definitely needed to stop it from growing into a bigger problem.
所以,这是一个危机但仍然是政府能控制的,毕竟中国政府有大量贸易顺差和外汇储备。但是仍然需要实际行动来防止事态的扩展。
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2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Inflection Point

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Inflection Point
Crosspost: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg47569859#msg47569859
History
—08-JAN-2018: Elliott Wave, https://redd.it/7ptsg3
—12-JAN-2018: Crypto Black Monday, https://redd.it/7pxg0d
—24-JAN-2018: Dotcom vs Crypto, https://redd.it/7skzff
—21-FEB-2018: Bear Market Resumes, https://redd.it/7z8u6n
—28-FEB-2018: Halfway Through, https://redd.it/7umjf9
—13-MAR-2018: Fare Thee Well Ten Thousand, #10kNeverAgain: https://redd.it/842ssd
—19-MAR-2018: Equinox, https://redd.it/85m5tr
—03-APR-2018: April Fools’ Rally, https://redd.it/89jqye
—19-APR-2018: 420 High, https://redd.it/8dbz4f
—25-APR-2018: Symmetrical Triangle, https://redd.it/8ev2ki
—06-MAY-2018: Ten Thousand Tease, https://redd.it/8hdhjn
—29-MAY-2018: Triangle Phinance, https://redd.it/8mwx6z
—10-JUN-2018: Triangle Phinance II, https://redd.it/8q5p68
—23-JUL-2018: Redux, https://redd.it/913xx6
—02-SEP-2018: #ShortSeptember, https://redd.it/9c96vk
—04-NOV-2018: Inflection Point, https://redd.it/9u1y3z
TLDR: https://i.imgur.com/EGmziB1.png
The Bitcoin and cryptocurrency bear market of 2018 has reached a point of inflection, where alternative scenarios and projections can now be explored using Elliott Wave theory.
From the 17-DEC-2017 high to the 06-FEB-2018 low, the Bitcoin market endured a 70% price collapse from the all-time high of $19,891 to a low of $6,000 in just 51 days (BITFINEX). In Elliott Wave parlance, this first phase crash is a simple but sharp three wave a-b-c zigzag pattern.
From the 06-FEB-2018 low, the Bitcoin market then wandered sideways for 168 days until 24-JUL-2018, creating a floor of support at $6,000 whilst making successively lower highs. The psychological $6,000 price has been guarded since it marks support of the psychological USD$100 billion Bitcoin marketcap. In Elliott Wave parlance, this second phase of market development is a triangle pattern consisting of five a-b-c-d-e waves. The internal structure of the waves within the triangle are related to each other in terms of length as the following Fibonacci ratios:
wave-c = wave-a * 0.618 wave-d = wave-b * 0.786 wave-e = wave-c * 0.786 
https://i.imgur.com/Bm4Nx7a.png
The triangle phase of the Bitcoin market completed at the 24-JUL-2018 high. Since then, the third phase of market has been underway with an expectation of creating new lows for 2018 at sub $6,000 prices. Initial approx targets have been projected as follows (BITSTAMP):
@5920: Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high. @5220: Fibonacci 0.786% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high. @4327: Fibonacci 0.100% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high. @4200: Fibonacci 78.6% decline of entire Bitcoin market. 
Any of the aforementioned approx price levels based on Fibonacci projections are potential targets of where the 2018 bear market may conclude.
Should price retrace below the Fibonacci 78.6% of the entire Bitcoin market, i.e. below the psychological $4,000 level; it may suggest the bear market extends into 2019 with an expectation of a 90%-95% decline of the entire Bitcoin market to approx $1,000 by 2020. Such a scenario would be consistent with the collapse of other historical asset mania bubble bursts, which typically elapse 2 years on average: thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes
However, the Bitcoin market has reached an inflection point. The third phase of the bear market appears to have stagnated in price and time. Since 09-SEP-2018, price has traded in a narrow 10% range at an average price of $6,400 for almost 60 days thus far. Volatility is now at a 22-month low and technicals such as moving averages are flat-lining across daily timeframes. This behaviour has been quite unexpected. Since completion of the consolidating triangle phase of the market, volume and volatility was expected to breakout. Speculators and traders have left the stabilised cryptocurrency marketplace in favour of the more volatile global equity bear markets.
An alternative scenario can now be considered: Since completion of the triangle at the 24-JUL-2018 high, the concluding phase of the bear market may have declined and truncated at the 11-OCT-2018 low. If so, a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market may be commencing within an overall secular (i.e. long-term) bear market. Such a bull market would be termed as a wave-X as part of a complex ongoing long-term bear market structure.
https://i.imgur.com/vePkBiL.png
In some schools of Elliott Wave thought, the wave-X bull market may unfold in five 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive waves; or, as three a-b-c corrective waves considered in other schools of thought. Either way, the size of a wave-X is challenging to predict. Typically, it may retrace either a Fibonacci 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% of the entire 2018 bear market; that is approx $11,081 or $12,720 or $14,360 or $16,705 respectively (BITSTAMP). In some cases, a wave-X may extend to, and even exceed prior all-time highs, like typically seen in commodity and forex markets. The wave-X cyclical bull market could be a swift parabolic move elapsing within 12 months during the course of 2019, and thus the overall secular bear market may still resume to unfold to a low in late 2020.
In summary, the parameters of the inflection point can be currently defined as follows, using BITSTAMP prices…
Bear Market Inflection Points
—A break below the 11-OCT-2018 low of $6,055 would be the first indication to suggest the bear market is still underway.
—A break below the 14-AUG-2018 low of $5,880 would confirm the ongoing bear market.
—A break below $4,000 may suggest an extended bear market leading to a 90%-95% collapse of the entire Bitcoin market by 2020.
Bull Market Inflection Points
—A break above the 15-OCT-2018 high of $6,756 would be the first indication to suggest a bull market may be commencing.
—A break above the 04-SEP-2018 high of $7,412 would likely confirm a bull market is underway.
Notes
—Bitcoin CBOE XBT futures expiries: 14-NOV-2018, 19-DEC-2018
—Bitcoin CME futures last trade dates: 30-NOV-2018, 28-DEC-2018
—Bitcoin ICE Bakkt daily futures tentative launch: 12-DEC-2018
—S&P500: global stockmarket indices appear to have topped, and a bear market is underway. Expectation is a rally into the end of year 2018 towards $2,800+ in the S&P500 index, followed by a decline to approx $2,400 by Easter 2019 to end the brief equity bear market.
—Gold: rally underway, expectation to conclude at approx $1,260, and then bear market resumes to sub $1,000 by 2020.
—US Dollar: expecting uptrend to be bounded by approx 98, and then bear market resumes.
Elliott Wave models are speculative and indicative of price and structure, not time; i.e. the projections may occur sooner or later than anticipated.
—BTC (Weekly): https://i.imgur.com/B0ftUHf.png
—BTC (Daily): https://i.imgur.com/ljfMvlt.png
—BTC (4-hr): https://i.imgur.com/Ip1QQTe.png
submitted by 12345abcde00001 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Trading Advice For Beginners: You Don't Need Tradingview or Cryptowatch For Rudimentary TA

Pro-tip for the beginners: You don't need to use tradingview or cryptowat.ch for rudimentary TA, you can use whatever tool is most convenient for you if they are still too complex for you. Once you get used to one you can move on to the next until reading charts will become second nature. This process can take years but if you read books can be done in months. Crypto is fairly easy to read compared to stock markets, so for the love of god don't overcomplicate things like some people do.
Here is a very easy to see example for you taken directly from coinmarketcap which you should already be familiar with unless you are a total beginner (then it would probably best to first read about the tech at /ethereum/: https://imgur.com/a/eFT5h
This is taken directly from coinmarketcap. Now when you enter, stay steady, it is not rare that you believe a breakout is about to happen only for it to dump down one more time. Whales do this all the time, it's a classic move to shake out the weak hands before an upmove (you can see this in this chart too!) but dont make the mistake and dont set a mental stop-loss and stay disciplined. Not every breakout really finishes a formation, there are also fake-outs. In this example above it did happen after a very nice cup and handle. It's a typical formation but in a textbook it will usually say something like the handle should be 1/3 the size of the cup. So if the cup is $4 high you divide that by 3. Note that these formations are not always perfect!
In this example above according to CNC the handle would be approx $1.33 - and that is where CNC is lacking, you will typically only see daily averages and not the absolute lows of a given day which you could see on charts provided by tradingview or other tools to get a more precise reading of the cup and a potentially better idea of where you should buy in when the handle forms.
Here are some further information of how to identify a cup and handle: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:cup_with_handle_continuation
My favorite formation to trade in stock markets is the falling wedge because it is so easy to spot - I like to trade the wedge because I know that after a breakout it will typically retrace back to support (more likely to happen in stock markets than crypto!) where I can position myself and take very high risks with little downside - combine this with information of the newsflow and fundamentals of a stock (or coin) and you have just increased your odds of making a successful (stock) trade to above average. These are the opportunities you dont want to miss.
What I like even more and what I typically rely on the most are boring consolidations and just buying a solid company with a dividend as diversification for my riskier ventures. This can be applied to coins as well (see hodlors). If you dont stay disciplined and take care of your portfolio as you would of an active business then it will fall apart - never say no to diversification - never say no to taking money off the table (after a 5x it is not a bad idea to take out your initial investment even if you believe it is a 100x opp)
Now, don't make the mistake and take your crypto winnings or trading knowledge and start trading AMD or some equally volatile stock. Trust me, you will be taken advantage of because you don't know half of it! Dont even try. It takes me weeks to properly get into the chart of a volatile stock and understand its current typical moves. Unless you have several years experience with charts dont think about trading stocks or forex - that is a completely different game with different rules. Typically, I hold forex positions only when I need to currency-hedge a position. This gets a bit more confusing if the stock you are buying is for example denominated in JPY (Yen) or other foreign currencies you don't know the current exchange rate of but it is good practice to be familiar with at least a few common currencies.
If you have any questions, you are welcome to ask below or in the bi-weekly - you will likely find more competent traders there too because I try to rely as much as possible on the easiest formations and the OBVIOUS opportunities. If they are not obvious (to me) I am not trading. If they involve betting on the stupidity of people (XRP) then I am not trading. If they involve heavy short manipulation then I am not trading. Find your own rules, you don't need to follow mine. Make up some of your own and you will do well in this space.
submitted by etheraddict77 to ETHInsider [link] [comments]

How Fed Funds Rate Works (and Why Forex Traders Should Care)

The aim of this post is to show how the current federal funds rate operation differs from its pre-crisis model and how it is important to Forex traders.

Before 2008

When things were simple (before 2008), the Federal Reserve set its target federal funds rate (FFR) as a single number and made sure that the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) is at the target level by performing open market operations (OMO). Those OMO normally included repurchase agreements (repo or RP) to temporarily increase the reserves supply in the federal funds market (FFM) (and thus reduce the demand and the EFFR) and reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) to temporarily decrease the supply of reserves and drive the EFFR up. It worked very well because the total size of bank reserves was rather small ($15 billion) in pre-crisis times.

Our times

Nowadays, when the Fed is holding $2.27 trillion in reserve balances (as of March 27, 2017), the old scheme would not fare so well. There is no scarcity of reserve balances at all. To create it, the Fed would need to sell a big share of its securities to shrink the total reserves to manageable size. But that would create some problems — it would drive down the prices of those securities and would launch a series of unpredictable market feedback loops. Instead, what the Fed is doing since 2008 is setting a target FFR as a range between two interest rates. For example, it is 0.75%-1.00% as of today while the EFFR, measured as volume-weighted median, was at 0.91% during the last 3 days.

Ceiling rate

The Fed makes sure that the FFM respects the target bounds by setting the interest on excess reserves (IOER) to the top boundary rate. When 95% of the reserve balances are the excess balances (balances exceeding the required level), the IOER rate paid by the Fed to the banks for holding these reserves serves as the ceiling for the rate corridor. It may sound counter-intuitive, because IOER would have been a floor level if only the FFM was composed only of the banks. However, it is not the case. The government-sponsored enterprises (GSE), such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Federal Home Loan Banks, comprise the bulk of the FFM. GSEs do not earn IOER on reserve balances kept at the Fed. This creates an arbitrage opportunity for banks to borrow from GSEs and allocate the funds with the Fed to earn IOER. Consequently, the interest rate of GSE's loans to banks should be below IOER.

Floor rate

And how about the floor of the rate range (the 0.75% part of today's target range)? It is enforced by the Fed through the OMO called overnight repurchase agreement (ON RRP). With it, the Fed can drain some reserves from the system by borrowing cash from market participants, giving them securities as a collateral. Since not only banks can earn interest on their funds with ON RRP (GSEs can also do it), this sets the de facto lower boundary for the EFFR. Who would lend at a lower rate if they can choose to get at least this rate from the risk-less loan to the Fed? One important feature of the current system is that the EFFR does not cling to the upper side of the rate range (IOER) but hovers below it, falling down to near the ON RRP rate during the final day of the month. The reason for the former is that the banks pay higher FDIC insurance fees when they borrow more. And the reason for the latter is that the banks need to follow the Basel requirements, which limit their leverage, but are calculated based on the end-of-month balance sheet.

Efficiency

As a result, we can see the EFFR fluctuating between ON RRP and IOER — well within the boundaries of the Fed's target FFR. The short-term interest rates (represented by the 3-month Treasury bills) roughly follow the EFFR, which means that the interest rates get propagated beyond the FFM. Note the EFFR spiking down on each last day of the month:
EFFR inside target FFR range with 3-month Treasury Bill rate for comparison

Relation to Forex

So why should Forex traders care about this? Because effective federal funds rate and the Fed's ability to uphold it are even more important for the US dollar than the target rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee at its meetings. It is the higher EFFR that would stimulate banks buying more USD to park it either with the Fed or with the GSEs. It is the lower EFFR that would let banks to use the USD as a carry trade short side. Now you see that any significant news concerning GSE regulations, Basel III requirements, or FDIC insurance fee policies could have tremendous influence on the USD rate based on how such news could affect the EFFR. As a currency trader, you have to be up-to-date with the expectations of the FFM participants regarding those three components. I recommend the following resources to stay up-to-date with those topics:
Of course, you can also use some financial news outlet of your choice that would cover all these topics.
submitted by enivid to Forex [link] [comments]

About the BITEX.ONE

About the BITEX.ONE

https://preview.redd.it/fsjc1w0q8jr11.jpg?width=1590&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=00099197b71aea50a43f32219cc36f8fa7c8bf7d
Background
The use of cryptocurrency is spreading fast among business communities around the world. One niche with great potential for cryptocurrency use is the market of traditional tradable assets of foreign currencies, shares, bonds, interest rates and minerals.
As soon as the right regulations on blockchain are put in place, traders will be able to use cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin to trade assets. The doors will be wide open for institutional investors, international manufacturers and merchants to start using cryptocurrencies for transactions. Paying for delivered products with cryptocurrencies will greatly reduce transaction expenses since the system is fast, secure and free of additional fees. These qualities will enable buyers and sellers in these markets to guard against risk and save a little cash.
You can imagine the asset demand the use of cryptocurrency in the stock markets would create. The volume of speculation and hedging operations of traders will grow significantly. Combined with high-frequency robots and trading algorithms that help perform transactions faster and more accurately, the market volumes and the income of trading platforms is bound to skyrocket.
Market analysis
As per the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) over the counter derivatives were traded for a whopping $632.5 trillion in 2012. In the same year, traditional exchange markets garnered $52.5 trillion. When the two are compared, the former made 92% of the global derivative market while the latter only made 8%.
For comparison
According to WTO,
· Global commodity trade made: $18.255 trillion in 2011, $18.323 trillion in 2012,
· Service trade made: $4.2433 trillion in 2011 and $4.4232 trillion in 2012
These values are still way behind the derivative market trade volumes.
What are the challenges?
Delving into the asset markets with cryptocurrencies as a means of trade comes with a few challenges. For one, it is difficult for private persons with small investments to access these markets. And even if you were a big corporation, there is currently no opportunity to trade with exchange asset derivative instruments that are expressed in cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin.)
How Traditional Stock exchanges work
Trading is carried out with the use of fiat currencies and is performed through brokers. The brokers work for huge corporations hence the high expenses and large volumes of transactions. The volume of one trade at exchange markets with the real delivery of currency on the second working day could make up to about $5 million.
On the other hand, the cost of one conversion transaction makes from $60 to $300. On top of these costs, a trader could spend up to $6000 a month for interbank information and trading terminal. This is obviously not conducive for small-scale traders.
In order to curb the high costs of trade, two American stock exchanges, CBOE and CME introduced trade with futures for BTC at the end of 2017. The only problem is that they impose high requirements on the lot size. Another challenge is that futures at these stock exchanges are calculated and not delivered hence trade participants cannot actually buy BTC.
Curbstone brokers
Curbstone brokers or otherwise known as ‘bucket shops’ are forex brokers who offer clients small transactions without registering them with the interbank market. The brokers act as an opposite side in a transaction which means that the client's profit turns out to be the broker’s loss, and the client's loss - into broker's profit. This conflict of interest has resulted in brokers manipulating charts to make transactions of their clients unprofitable. Bucket shops do not publish reports on transactions, which makes activities of such brokers non-transparent.
Of late, many of them have begun offering trade with cryptocurrencies. It makes trading flexible but not ethical and trustworthy as it is with the traditional stock exchanges.
As a matter of fact, this lack of trust in curbstone brokership has led to their ban in some countries where they are considered fraudulent.
So what is the solution?
Cryptocurrencies have enabled ordinary people and investors to save and grow their money discreetly away from unfair control or seizure by state regulatory bodies. The use of cryptocurrency in the blockchain network is a powerful expression of freedom that should be spread across all trading platforms.
In this regard, we believe in the development of future exchange asset derivative instruments that make use of the available cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and other high-liquid cryptocurrencies.
This will make bull or bear traditional assets widely accessible to professionals and beginning traders. More importantly, there will be lower transaction fees about 0.05% when compared to spot exchanges (Bitfinex, Binance, Kraken, and Poloniex) that charge in the range of 0.1 to 2%.
BITEX.ONE
BlTEX.ONE is one such innovative trading platform that allows for international trading with assets expressed in cryptocurrencies with a transparent transaction system for the customers. It also has anti-fraud prevention measures to guard against chart manipulations.
The platform allows traders to increase their Bitcoins by speculating on the changes in the price of accessible traditional exchange assets such as the dollar, the euro, gold, oil, beans, cocoa or share indexes.
Mission
Our greatest mission is to bring the usage of blockchain and cryptocurrencies into the trading arena. We believe that the creation and functioning of the BITEX.ONE platform for trading with futures on traditional assets would achieve this.
The growing popularity of cryptocurrencies in many developing countries will soon provide them with a legitimate status through effective legislation. When this plane takes off, we want to be ready with an elaborate platform for institutional investors to use cryptocurrencies as investment instruments. Working with futures on traditional assets will create an opportunity for investors to make substantial profit for their customers.
submitted by Bitex1 to u/Bitex1 [link] [comments]

5 Significant Reasons to Trade Forex

Forex or the foreign exchange market is a decentralized or over-the-counter (OTC) market whereby currencies are traded at current or determined prices. This market brings together central banks, investment banks, commercial banks, hedge funds retail traders among other professions. According to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) last triennial survey, the size of the forex market turnover was $5.2 trillion as of 2016. The forex market is thus the biggest financial market in the world. Reed More.....https://www.financeattitude.com/5-significant-reasons-to-trade-forex
submitted by financeattitude to u/financeattitude [link] [comments]

Basics of The Forex Market & Currency Pairs - YouTube FOREX THE BASICS 2020  LOT SIZES & RISK TO REWARD  FOREX ... FX Market Size - Liquidity Forex Trading for Beginners #5: What is a Forex Lot Size ... What Is a LOT SIZE *Forex Market* Basics Episode 5 - YouTube Lesson 8: What is the best trade size in forex trading ... PrimeCapitec: What is Forex How Does Forex Work Forex Education And Trading For Beginners

Forex Market Size, Volume And Liquidity. The Forex market is by far the biggest market in the world averaging a turnover of $5.1 trillion dollars a day. Because of the giant size of the market, it is a great market for traders who want to make swing trades, scalp trades and day trade. You can enter the markets without delay, with very tight spreads, and good leverage. This lesson looks at ... The BIS nominal exchange rate data set - published since September 2017 - contains long time series on US dollar exchange rates for currencies of approximately 190 economies at daily, monthly, quarterly and annual frequencies. These exchange rate series, which draw on central bank data and other sources, are used for the calculation of the BIS nominal and real effective exchange rate series ... Market Size and Global Trading Centres. How big is the FX market in terms of liquidity? The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) provides data on the liquidity of the FX market every three ... The size and depth of the forex market make it an ideal trading market. Its liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay. This creates tight spreads for favorable ... The BIS’s Triennial Survey produces data on the volume of forex trading, which is used by market analysts around the world, as well as historical data dating back to 1996 depicting how the forex market has expanded both in size and geographical range over the years. Furthermore, the BIS is currently scheduled to release an updated forex market survey for April 2019, with results being ... The BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey is the most comprehensive source of information on the size and structure of global foreign exchange (FX) and over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets. The Triennial Survey aims to increase the transparency of OTC markets and to help central banks, other authorities and market participants monitor developments in global financial markets. The rise of cryptocurrencies, in particular, will surely have a large effect on the foreign exchange market by the end of the decade. Size of the Forex Market. 1. According to BIS’s 2019 triennial survey, trading in FX markets reached an incredible $6.6 trillion per day in April of 2019. 2. The worth of the entire global forex trading market is estimated to approximately $2.4 quadrillion ...

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Basics of The Forex Market & Currency Pairs - YouTube

It dwarfs other markets in size, even the stock market, with an average traded value of around U.S. $2,000 billion per day. (The total volume changes all the time, but as of August 2012, the Bank ... Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. Forex Trade With Us http://bit.ly/2EYIbgI Email: [email protected] Brokers I use https://bit.ly/35kgYkc P.S MY INSTAGRAM IS GONE NOW SO IF SOMEBODY W... This is the first in a series of videos covering the basics of the Forex market. We look at a simple example of exchanging currencies and the effect of fluct... Welcome to video #5 of Forex Trading for Beginners - what is a Forex lot size. This is a free (step by step) trading course that teaches you the essentials o... Forex Trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The leveraged nature of FX trading means ... Get more information about IG US by visiting their website: https://www.ig.com/us/future-of-forex Get my trading strategies here: https://www.robbooker.com C...

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